The U.S. economy saw job creation cool sharply heading into the summer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
Nonfarm payrolls for June increased by a seasonally adjusted 57,000 for the month, slower than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and worse than the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast.
The unemployment rate, however, dropped to 4.2%, slightly ahead of the 4.1% where it was a year ago.
The move lower was largely due to a slump in the labor force participation rate, which dropped 0.3 percentage point to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. Household employment plummeted during the month, with 507,000 fewer people reported at work. A broader unemployment measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons declined by 0.2 percentage point to 7.9%.
Prior months also saw significant downward revisions — the May total, which had been much stronger than economists had anticipated, was cut by 43,000, while April’s figure came down 31,000 to 148,000 as the report showed labor market growth significantly slower than previously thought.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago, both in line with the consensus forecasts.
Professional and business services contributed the most, with a gain of 36,000. Social assistance added 25,000 and healthcare employment rose by 22,000, a slower-than-normal pace for the industry. Government jobs rose by 8,000.
However, leisure and hospitality reported a loss of 61,000 jobs, which the BLS said reflected slower-than-usual seasonal hiring. There had been speculation that the World Cup might provide some boost to the payroll numbers, with Goldman Sachs estimating a gain of 40,000.
Most other categories showed little change.
Stock market futures rose following the report as traders eased expectations for an interest rate increase as soon as September. Treasury yields were negative, with the policy-sensitive 2-year yield down 3.5 basis points to 4.13%.
“The slowdown in payroll growth challenges the narrative of renewed labor market strength that has been building in recent months but, importantly, reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve is under little pressure to tighten policy,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
The report comes with Federal Reserve policymakers expressing mixed feelings about the economy – mostly positive on growth though apprehensive on inflation as earlier fears about weakness in the labor market have eased. However, the weak report Thursday could change the labor market view.
In an appearance Wednesday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh called the jobs picture “steady” as he continued to emphasize the importance of bringing inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. Inflation has been running north of that goal for the past five years, with the most recent surge in part due to the Iran war and ongoing impacts from tariffs.
“For the Fed, this number is fine,” Thomas Simons, senior economist at Jefferies, said in a note. “The pace of job growth is plenty strong enough to maintain a steady unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are solid, but not accelerating. There is no imperative on their part to do anything with rates immediately, and the softening in the pace of job growth suggests that rate hikes are very unlikely to be necessary this year.”
Markets expect the Fed to stay on hold during the summer. Following the jobs number, traders took a potential September hike off the table though futures still point to a potential increase in October, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.
However, Warsh has eschewed any type of “forward guidance” on where rates are headed and has said repeatedly during his short term at the helm that he is not committed to any type of policy path.
In other jobs news Thursday, initial jobless claims edged lower to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended June 27, down 1,000 from the prior week and below the forecast for 220,000.
Correction: The unemployment rate was 4.3% in May. An earlier version mischaracterized the recent trend.
