Amid a balancing national market, homebuyers continue to favor value-hubs, overwhelmingly located in the Northeast and Midwest
In 2026, the national housing market is expected to be steadier with somewhat stronger home sales and modest home price growth. Nationwide, we expect a more balanced housing market—tilted somewhat further in buyers’ favor than the 2025 housing market marked by another modest step forward in affordability as mortgage rate relief and slower home price growth offers breathing room for incomes to catch up.
Not every market will feel the same in 2026. In the year ahead, our forecast shows that some markets will likely see more homes sell and prices are expected to rise faster than in other areas. We ranked the 100 largest metros by expected sales and price gains and identified the top 10. These places share several common threads: they offer better value than nearby high-cost hubs, a facet that tends to draw buyers in. However, chronic inventory shortages combined with steady demand combine to push prices up. For buyers, that can mean more competition and faster price gains. For sellers and homeowners in these areas, it points to strong demand and potential upside next year.
Top 10 Metropolitan Areas That Surfaced for 2026:
| Rank | Metro Name | Region | 2026 Existing Home Sale Counts Year-over-Year | 2026 Existing Home Median Sale Price Year-over-Year | 2026 Combined Growth |
| 1 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. | Northeast | 7.6% | 9.5% | 17.1% |
| 2 | Rochester, N.Y. | Northeast | 5.3% | 10.3% | 15.5% |
| 3 | Worcester, Mass.-Conn. | Northeast | 12.6% | 2.4% | 15.0% |
| 4 | Toledo, Ohio | Midwest | -1.2% | 13.1% | 11.9% |
| 5 | Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. | Northeast | 7.1% | 4.1% | 11.2% |
| 6 | Richmond, Va. | South | 3.6% | 6.9% | 10.6% |
| 7 | Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich | Midwest | 6.9% | 3.7% | 10.6% |
| 8 | Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. | Midwest | 3.5% | 7.0% | 10.5% |
| 9 | New Haven-Milford, Conn. | Northeast | 2.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh, Pa. | Northeast | 4.0% | 5.7% | 9.7% |
Here’s what these markets have in common—and why they’re likely to stay in the spotlight next year:
- Relative affordability,
- Limited new construction
- Below-average mortgage lock-in,
- And older, well-qualified buyers amid an older housing stock.
Relative affordability keeps ‘refuge markets’ active
The top housing markets of 2026 share a clear common thread: buyers are still chasing housing affordability, and that’s bringing demand to “refuge markets.” These include legacy markets in the classically-affordable Midwest, like Milwaukee, Toledo, or Grand Rapids, and secondary cities in otherwise high-priced regions, such as Hartford, Worcester, Providence, or Richmond.
The key commonality across these hubs is good value for homebuyers. The median list price across the 2026 top 10 averages around $384,000, well below the $415,000 national median, making these markets obvious choices for those leaving high-priced hubs or first-time home buyers.
Before rates rose, these metros drew less attention from out-of-state shoppers. In early 2022, about 31% of listing views in today’s top 10 came from out-of-state shoppers compared with 36% in other markets. After mortgage rates jumped and affordability took center stage, that dynamic flipped. In mid 2023, out-of-state shopping comprised 47% of activity in the top 10, compared to 44% in other markets.
Affordability continues to drive interest to the top 10. In Q3 2025, out-of-state buyers still accounted for 40% of listing views in the top 10–slightly more than elsewhere (39%). And the interest isn’t random: each top 10 market draws heavily from at least one major, high-cost metro such as New York, Boston, or Washington, D.C., underscoring that price-sensitive buyers are increasingly looking to these value hubs for refuge from high costs.
| Median List Prices | Active Listings | |||||||||
| Rank | Geo. | in Nov 2025 | vs. Nov 2024 | vs. Pre-pandemic | vs. Nov 2022 | in Nov 2025 | vs. Nov 2024 | vs. Pre-pandemic | vs. Nov 2022 | |
| 1 | Hartford, CT | $429,000 | 5.6% | 47.2% | 12.2% | 1,224 | 8.2% | -74.0% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | Rochester, NY | $256,900 | 2.8% | 42.9% | 16.1% | 940 | 11.4% | -60.2% | 6.5% | |
| 3 | Worcester, MA | $525,000 | -0.9% | 56.0% | 13.5% | 1,223 | 13.9% | -42.7% | 35.4% | |
| 4 | Toledo, OH | $199,900 | -9.1% | 42.5% | 33.4% | 1,200 | 42.3% | -32.3% | 31.1% | |
| 5 | Providence, RI | $550,000 | 1.9% | 53.0% | 15.8% | 2,225 | 10.8% | -54.7% | 15.3% | |
| 6 | Richmond, VA | $426,000 | -0.9% | 39.1% | 12.1% | 2,846 | 16.4% | -30.8% | 40.5% | |
| 7 | Grand Rapids, MI | $389,900 | 4.0% | 50.7% | 10.6% | 1,882 | 3.2% | -32.7% | 25.1% | |
| 8 | Milwaukee, WI | $379,000 | 3.8% | 56.1% | 16.6% | 3,184 | 0.6% | -35.0% | 6.4% | |
| 9 | New Haven, CT | $439,000 | -2.2% | 52.9% | 18.7% | 689 | 3.5% | -66.6% | -4.4% | |
| 10 | Pittsburgh, PA | $245,000 | 4.3% | 38.8% | 14.0% | 5,769 | 5.4% | -31.5% | 21.7% | |
| Top 10 AVG | $383,970 | 0.9% | 47.9% | 16.3% | 2,118 | 11.6% | -46.1% | 17.9% | ||
| USA | $415,000 | -0.4% | 42.4% | -0.2% | 1,072,417 | 12.6% | -11.7% | 42.9% | ||
| Northeast | $500,000 | 0.0% | 51.7% | 5.3% | 106,362 | 7.0% | -48.4% | 7.5% | ||
| Midwest | $305,000 | 1.7% | 45.4% | 7.2% | 164,874 | 10.3% | -32.9% | 28.6% | ||
| South | $380,000 | -1.3% | 37.1% | -2.5% | 582,644 | 14.1% | 5.7% | 66.1% | ||
| West | $591,090 | -1.5% | 40.1% | 2.8% | 215,481 | 14.3% | 3.1% | 27.6% | ||
We forecast lower mortgage rates, on average, in 2026– enough to pull buyers off the sidelines – but anticipate they’ll remain in the 6.3% range – meaning demand and activity will remain highest in Northeast and Midwestern markets that offer good value, specifically, more space at lower list prices. This continues a trend we have seen in Realtor.com’s monthly Hottest Markets and the WSJ/Realtor.com Fall Housing Rankings: smaller metros in low-supply regions consistently rise to the top when buyers balance affordability and access to jobs.
These are markets with chronically tight inventory. As of November 2025, Hartford active listings sit 74% below pre-pandemic levels, New Haven and Worcester are similarly constrained. Even Pittsburgh, the largest metro in the top 10 for 2026, and Richmond, the most recovered, are still around 31% below pre-pandemic supply baselines, nearly three times the national recovery gap of -11.7%.
Limited inventory will only amplify price growth, as these already-hot markets get even hotter next year. List prices in each of the top 10 remain below their regional average. Yet these same markets have seen far faster price growth since mortgage rates jumped in 2022. Nationally, list prices have been essentially flat (-0.2%) over that period; in these “refuge metros,” prices are up 16.3% on average, ranging from 10.6% in Grand Rapids to a striking 33.4% in Toledo.
The combination of lower price points with strong appreciation will foster dynamic conditions in these markets, including elevated listing views, a faster pace, and strong cross-market demand from households moving from high cost of living areas. Buyers seeking value in 2026 will ensure these smaller, often overlooked metros remain some of the hottest markets in the country.
A lack of new construction in some markets keeps prices climbing
All but one of the top metros for 2026 are located in the Northeast and Midwest, the two regions of the country where new construction activity is relatively scarce. Compared to the South and West, the Northeast and Midwest have a lower share of new builds on the market and significantly higher price premiums on new construction compared to existing homes. In fact, in 9 out of the 10 top markets new-construction listings make up a smaller share of homes for sale than the national average (the lone exception being the lone Southern metro, Richmond). And when new homes do come to market, they tend to be expensive. All 10 markets have new construction premiums that are double the national average or higher. New construction expands the supply of homes and keeps price growth in check, which is why the lack of new construction in these top metros has led to strong projections for price growth in each.
| Geography | New-Construction Share of Listings | New-Construction vs. Existing-Home Price Premium |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | 8.2% | 69.6% |
| Rochester, NY | 6.8% | 137.0% |
| Worcester, MA | 13.7% | 39.1% |
| Toledo, OH | 9.9% | 120.7% |
| Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 8.3% | 34.8% |
| Richmond, VA | 31.3% | 24.6% |
| Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI | 15.4% | 32.2% |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 12.4% | 72.9% |
| New Haven, CT | 7.6% | 94.0% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 6.5% | 99.4% |
| USA | 16.7% | 10.2% |
Several top markets see below-average ‘lock-in’
‘Mortgage lock-in’ happens when homeowners stay put because trading a low-rate mortgage for today’s higher rates would raise their monthly payment. A few of the Top Markets for 2026 stand out for having relatively small gaps between what existing mortgage holders pay each month and what a new buyer would pay at today’s prices and rates, suggesting lower lock-in pressure. In Rochester, Toledo, and Pittsburgh, the three most affordable metros on the list, today’s buyers would face principal and interest payments 32.5% to 56.4% higher than the typical current mortgage holder in those markets.
For comparison, the typical U.S. household would see their payment rise 73.2% if they purchased a similar home today. That means the jump in monthly cost for buyers in these metros, 56.4% in Rochester, 43.9% in Toledo, and 32.5% in Pittsburgh, is notably smaller than the national norm.
Two additional Top Markets, Richmond and Milwaukee, are more in line with U.S. trends. In these metros, today’s buyers would face payments 77.6% and 79.7% above the typical outstanding mortgage payment, respectively, close to the national level.
| Rank | Cbsa Title | Median Existing Mortgage Pmt | Oct 2025 Est. Monthly Pmt | Difference | Share Who Own Outright |
| USA | $1,291 | $2,236 | 73.2% | 40.3% | |
| 1 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | $1,167 | $2,316 | 98.5% | 36.9% |
| 2 | Rochester, NY | $903 | $1,412 | 56.4% | 40.3% |
| 3 | Worcester, MA | $1,426 | $2,872 | 101.4% | 32.9% |
| 4 | Toledo, OH | $798 | $1,149 | 43.9% | 40.7% |
| 5 | Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | $1,372 | $3,070 | 123.8% | 34.5% |
| 6 | Richmond, VA | $1,273 | $2,261 | 77.6% | 31.7% |
| 7 | Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI | $1,063 | $2,055 | 93.4% | 39.7% |
| 8 | Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | $1,144 | $2,054 | 79.7% | 35.4% |
| 9 | New Haven, CT | $1,211 | $2,422 | 99.9% | 35.4% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh, PA | $995 | $1,318 | 32.5% | 44.2% |
A smaller gap between current and would-be payments implies less mortgage lock-in, meaning homeowners in these markets have comparatively lower financial barriers to sell and buy again in the same market. That dynamic can help support more mobility, more listings, and ultimately more transaction volume, one of the forces elevating these metros to the top of the ranking.
Rochester, Toledo, Pittsburgh and Grand Rapids also have a relatively high share of homeowners who own their homes outright. Because these owners do not have a low-rate or other mortgage to hold onto, they are largely insulated from mortgage-rate lock-in or the drag of higher rates in general. As a result, these markets are better positioned to keep activity moving at a time when housing turnover remains stalled in much of the country.
Mortgage trends point to stronger buyer positioning in the top 10
Mortgage-market data provide further evidence that the 2026 top markets are entering the year with a key advantage. Compared with other large metros, the Top 10 attract buyers who tend to have slightly stronger credit profiles, higher down payments, and a greater reliance on conforming loans—a mix that supports market resilience even in a high-rate environment. Across primary-residence loans in 2025, Top 10 markets averaged a 742 FICO (vs. 737 in other large metros) and a 15.7% down payment (vs. 14.6%), reflecting borrowers with stronger balance sheets and more equity from the start. Conforming loans make up 74.2% of mortgages in the Top 10 (vs. 57.9% in other large metros), while FHA and VA shares are markedly lower. This tilt toward borrowers who qualify for the most standardized, lowest-risk loan products gives these markets added stability as rates ease.
Within the Top 10, several metros particularly exemplify these patterns. Milwaukee (FICO 749), Grand Rapids (FICO 747), Hartford (746), and Rochester (744) stand out for exceptionally high credit scores, while Hartford also posts the highest down payment share (18.7%), reinforcing its position as a magnet for financially strong buyers. Milwaukee and Grand Rapids lead the group in conforming-loan share—nearly 84% and 83%, respectively—well above both the Top 10 and national averages. At the other end of the spectrum, Richmond (58% conforming) and Providence (66%) see comparatively higher FHA participation, consistent with their roles as value gateways that may create opportunity for first-time homebuyers in otherwise expensive regions. Toledo, with the lowest average FICO (729) and down payment (11.6%), shows that affordability-driven markets can still exhibit sustained demand even with a more mixed borrower profile. Still, even these relatively lower-credit markets maintain more favorable financing mixes than their peers nationwide.
These mortgage dynamics reinforce the broader narrative of the forecast. The Top 10 are refuge markets where buyers can stretch their dollars without taking on excessive financial risk. Their borrowers bring more equity and stronger credit into the transaction, enabling sales activity to remain comparatively robust despite still-elevated mortgage rates. When paired with chronic supply shortages and below-average lock-in effects in metros like Rochester, Toledo, Pittsburgh, and Grand Rapids, the mortgage data highlight markets with both stronger demand and the flexibility to transact, positioning them for some of the fastest combined price and sales growth in the nation in 2026.
| Rank | Cbsa Title | Average FICO Score | Average Down Payment Percentage | Average Share of Conforming Loans |
| 1 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | 746 | 18.7% | 78.7% |
| 2 | Rochester, NY | 744 | 15.9% | 82.5% |
| 3 | Worcester, MA | 738 | 15.6% | 74.3% |
| 4 | Toledo, OH | 729 | 11.6% | 68.6% |
| 5 | Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 739 | 16.7% | 66.2% |
| 6 | Richmond, VA | 739 | 14.2% | 58.1% |
| 7 | Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI | 747 | 15.9% | 82.5% |
| 8 | Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI | 749 | 16.6% | 83.9% |
| 9 | New Haven, CT | 741 | 17.1% | 73.4% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh, PA | 744 | 14.2% | 73.5% |
Home to mature and stable households
Households in these metros tend to be older than those found nationwide. The median age of residents for most of these areas is well into the 50s, suggesting a population with deep roots and a relatively stable household structure. Pittsburgh, PA has one of the highest shares of long-term homeowners in the country, with 20.8% having moved into their homes in 1989 or earlier. Providence, RI, also has a relatively high share, with 16.7% of homeowners having moved in 1989 or earlier. Among the top 10 metros, only Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI has a share of long-tenured homeowners that falls somewhat short of the national average.
This long-tenured homeowner base reflects a broader trend: older households move less frequently and are more likely to age in place, which naturally limits the number of homes that come onto the market each year. When demand picks up, often driven by affordability-seeking buyers relocating from higher-cost metros, the combination of low turnover and tight inventory can put upward pressure on prices, even in markets with otherwise stable or modest population growth.
- Pittsburgh, PA, leads the list with the oldest median age at 57.
- It is closely followed by Providence-Warwick, RI-MA (55), New Haven, CT (55), and Hartford-West Hartford, CT (55).
- Even the youngest metro in the group, Grand Rapids, MI, has a median age of 52, which is still significantly higher than the median age of 40 for the total U.S. population.
| Rank | Area | Median Year Home Built | Median Resident Age (Years) | Owners in Home Since 1989 or Earlier (%) |
| 0 | USA | 1981 | 40 | 12.0% |
| 1 | Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. | 1967 | 55 | 16.3% |
| 2 | Rochester, N.Y. | 1966 | 55 | 15.6% |
| 3 | Worcester, Mass.-Conn. | 1967 | 55 | 15.2% |
| 4 | Toledo, Ohio | 1967 | 53 | 14.3% |
| 5 | Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. | 1962 | 55 | 16.7% |
| 6 | Richmond, Va. | 1985 | 53 | 12.3% |
| 7 | Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich | 1980 | 52 | 11.2% |
| 8 | Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. | 1967 | 53 | 14.1% |
| 9 | New Haven-Milford, Conn. | 1964 | 55 | 16.2% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh, Pa. | 1960 | 57 | 20.8% |
Living in older pre-war and midcentury homes
Reflecting the population’s maturity, the housing stock in these markets is also considerably older than the national median year built of 1981. Homes in these metros overwhelmingly date back to the Mid-Century period or earlier and as a result are smaller.
The oldest homes in this list are found in the Rust Belt and New England regions:
- Pittsburgh, PA, has the oldest median home age, at 1960.
- Providence-Warwick, RI-MA follows closely with a median year built of 1962.
- New Haven, CT (1964) and Rochester, NY (1966) also showcase an old housing infrastructure.
In fact, 8 of the 10 metros have a median year built in the 1960s or earlier, meaning the typical home is now well over 60 years old. Even the newest median home, found in Richmond, VA (1985), is over 40 years old.
Half of the metros in the top 10 have a median square footage below the national typical size of 1,834 square feet, a pattern that aligns with their older, pre-war, and mid-century housing stock. Toledo, OH, has the smallest median home size among the group at 1,561 square feet, followed by Pittsburgh, PA, at 1,588 square feet. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Richmond, VA, the metro with the newest median housing stock, also features the largest median square footage, at 1,969 square feet, highlighting how newer construction trends toward larger, more modern floor plans.
This concentration of older homes suggests a market where buyers are more likely to seek properties with vintage charm, but could also face higher maintenance costs.
Methodology
The Realtor.com® model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate 2026 values for these variables for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas by household size. These markets are then ranked by combined forecasted growth in home prices and sales. Results are calculated to three decimal places and ranked at this degree of specificity, there were no ties. For publication, results are rounded to one decimal place, and this can result in minor differences between the rounded and unrounded sums.
Realtor.com® 2026 Housing Forecast: 100 Largest U.S. Metros (Ranked)
