More sales, stubborn rates, home price growth. Here’s where five major groups landed on the housing market in 2026.
There’s always next year.
The major real estate forecasters have released their predictions for some of the most important metrics in the industry in 2026, and by and large they all agree things will move in the right direction.
Existing-home sales will be higher in 2026 than they were in 2025. Mortgage rates will fall. And home prices will generally rise.
That’s where the consensus ends, however.
To close out the year, Inman rounded up the five major housing forecasts from economists at the National Association of Realtors, the portals Zillow and Realtor.com, and the brokerages Redfin and Compass.
The outlooks highlight contrasts and similarities between the different groups and companies, showing which are the most bullish and which are more cautiously optimistic.
One takeaway: NAR is projecting the rosiest outlook for the real estate market after a three-year slog across the country.
And another: What happens in the real estate market in 2026 depends largely on macroeconomic and political factors that have dragged down consumer sentiment.
Here’s what economists are forecasting for next year.
Existing-home sales will rise, but by how much?
NAR came out of the gate in November with by far the most bullish outlook on existing-home sales.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said during the group’s NXT Realtor conference that he expects home sales to rise 14 percent in 2026.
That rate is more than three times higher than the next-closest forecast from economists at Zillow, who expect existing-home sales to rise 4.3 percent.
Yun said in a recent interview with Fox Business that a combination of factors will contribute to the rise in sales. And he added that his rosy sales outlook stems in part from his renewed and long-standing forecast that mortgage rates would fall close to 6 percent next year.
Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen left some room for a “goldilocks” environment, where home sales actually rise 10 percent next year.
Such a scenario would require mortgage rates to fall lower than they are now, a drop in withdrawal rates by sellers who have been reluctant to move, and the release of pent-up demand, Simonsen noted in his forecast.
Mortgage rates
To base his prediction that home sales would climb 14 percent next year, Yun said he looked at data from 2011 and 2012, when the mortgage rate fell by 1 percent and sales rose by about 1 million.
“Now, with the mortgage rate expected to go from, say, 7 percent, which was the rate [in the] early part of 2025, now approaching 6 percent […] we are going to have additional people qualifying for the mortgages,” Yun said.
While not all buyers will respond if mortgage rates fall, even if 10 percent of them did, it would be enough to cause a relative boom in sales, he said.
NAR’s outlook on mortgage rates was the most bullish, as well, in keeping with Yun’s tendency to predict rosier rate outcomes.
Compass’ Simonsen said in his forecast that rates should average 6.4 percent for the year. Redfin and Realtor.com both said they expect rates to average 6.3 percent for the year.
Zillow was the only big forecaster Inman looked at that did not specify an average mortgage rate for the year — but the portal agreed that rates would remain stubbornly above 6 percent.
For more context: Forecasters at Fannie Mae expect rates to fall to 5.9 percent by the end of next year, while the Mortgage Bankers Association has rates sitting at 6.4 percent all year.
Wages and home price growth
While every forecaster expects home prices nationally to keep climbing, they all acknowledge that price gains will be higher in some markets, while other markets could see prices fall.
Overall, most economists predict that buyers will gain some relative affordability given that wages are expected to outpace home price growth. Paired with a lower mortgage rate, the economists said generally that market fundamentals were coming closer to alignment.
Again, NAR’s outlook was nearly two times higher than the next-closest forecaster.
Realtor.com expects home prices to rise 2.2 percent next year. Zillow and Redfin said 1.2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Compass, again, was the most bearish on home prices nationally, forecasting that home prices would climb just 0.1 percent on the year.
