Winter storm Fern is projected to have a wide-ranging impact on energy and power production. Here are a few stocks and energy related industry groups to watch around this and future storms. Natural gas producers The price move in natural gas has been profound. A 70% jump in the commodity in fewer than two weeks is stuff for the record books. Buyers have also come into a couple of the natural gas stocks, with importer Excelerate Energy (EE) soaring 28% this month. Exxon Mobil (XOM) is considered more of an oil play but quietly has a huge natural gas operation. That stock continues to hit record highs and has popped 12% in January. The big issue is how much natural gas may go offline, with estimates ranging from 10 billion cubic feet to around 80bcf. Stocks to watch: Based on FactSet data, producers with the most upside seen by analysts include Antero Resources (AR) at 29.6%, EOG (EOG) with 24%, Expand Energy (EXE) at 21% and Coterra Energy (CTRA) at 18%. Context: 2021’s winter storm Uri wiped out about 30bcf of daily natural gas production, or about 1/3rd of total American output. Despite that, natural gas prices barely budged in the storm. The price spike we’ve seen recently is multiples larger than four years ago. No one I’ve spoken with or read research from is calling for more of a natural gas price spike. Caveat emptor. Pipelines Natural gas is not purely gas. It is also composed of tiny water particles. Water is also often a part of the natural gas production process. Water freezes. Natural gas equipment can freeze. Pipeline equipment can freeze. Pipelines also require electrical power. No power, potentially no pipeline activity. Stocks to watch: The pipeline operators also have exposure to potentially impacted areas. Those in the impacted areas with the most upside seen relative to analysts’ price targets include Energy Transfer (ET) , OneOK (OKE) , Kinder Morgan (KMI) , Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Williams Cos (WMB) . Two others with large Texas exposure include Targa Resources (TRGP) and Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) . An ETF to watch is the Alerian MPL (AMLP) . Context: Uri didn’t precipitate a big move in pipeline stocks overall, but it did mark the beginning of a multi-year uptrend for the group, though that was likely caused more from the post-Covid lockdown recovery than a storm. Utilities The biggest concern is that heavy snow, freezing rain and ice could knock out power for millions of homes, with some for long periods of time. Stocks to watch : Exelon (EXC) is the largest utility in America by customers; largely in the Washington-Baltimore corridor and Chicago area, both expected to be hit by bad weather and intense cold. Texas-based NRG Energy (NRG) powers over 8 million homes and was severely impacted by Uri in 2021. NRG also has the most upside seen by analysts, with a price target 42% above where the stock is now. Privately held Oncor is the largest utility in Texas, but is majority owned by publicly traded Sempra Energy (SRE) . Two big southeastern power producers include Southern Company (SO) and Duke Energy (DUK) . For the northeast, Fern will bring snow and cold but is not projected to be a top-25 snow event. Context: Utilities are in the middle of a public relations battle over electricity costs and data centers. They will want to work extra hard to make sure they get things right with this and future storms. Infrastructure and grid resiliency Downed power lines need to be repaired, fast. With temps as low as they are in some areas, time could equal lives saved. While utilities have their own in-house crews to do many repairs, there are outside firms that may catch traders’ eyes. Stocks to watch: Quanta Power Services (PWR) is one of the largest power line builders, including benefitting from what will no doubt be a louder call to put more wires underground. D.A. Davison also believes buy-rated MasTech (MTZ) and Primoris (PRIM) will see business from repairs and investments. For longer term energy infrastructure builders, check out Eaton (ETN) and France’s Schneider Electric (SU-FR) . Context: This is a long term more than a short-term play. Analysts tell me that widespread power outages will draw more attention to electric grid reliability issues, potentially leading to more investment in the industry. LNG exporters Any slowdown or shutdown in natural gas or pipelines or power outages could temporarily hit the natural gas exporters, who have to freeze gas and load ships. Stocks to watch: The two big pure-plays are Cheniere (LNG) and Venture Global (VG) , though traders and providers such as Shell (SHEL) and Exxon could also come into play. Context: Europe and Asia’s long-term gas needs will far outweigh any short-term production impact. The intense cold is not just an U.S. phenomenon, as biting temperatures are surging demand in Europe and also drawing down inventories. The need for U.S. LNG will last a long, long time. The energy story is going to be much larger than this storm, the next storm or the ones after that. As of this writing some of the worst projections are not coming to pass. But it will be a long few days for many regions in the country. Stay safe.
