What happened to mortgage rates this week?
The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.01% this week, the lowest level since September 2022. This dip from 6.09% last week follows a notable slide in the 10-year Treasury yield, which hit its lowest point since late November 2025 after last week’s softer-than-expected CPI reading and a relatively optimistic jobs report. For perspective, rates were around 6.6% just six months ago and stood at 6.87% this time last year. While today’s numbers mark a key milestone, recent Fed minutes hinted at a renewed hawkish outlook with some policymakers willing to tighten again if the progress on inflation stalls or reverses. In other words, today’s rate environment may not be permanent.
What does this mean for the housing market?
Although these yearslong lows are arriving during a traditionally slow time of year, they are already setting the stage for the spring homebuying season. For instance, we have seen some “green shoots” in demand, with the Realtor.com® pending home sales series rising 1.2% year over year in January, the strongest increase since late 2024. Buyers will be hoping this spring looks different from 2025, when tariff-driven economic uncertainty pulled the rug out from under them by pushing rates higher heading into the busy season and hitting 6.89% in late May. There is a chance to be nearly a full percentage point lower than that this spring, which would meaningfully boost purchasing power. However, the supply side remains mixed: New construction in 2025 finished behind 2024, and inventory growth has clearly lost steam. Without a significant return of supply through the easing of the mortgage “lock-in effect,” lower rates may simply reignite competition and spike prices, erasing the affordability relief buyers are hoping for.
