Casey’s General Stores (CASY) isn’t widely followed, but it should be — especially for investors who are looking for actionable, under-the-radar opportunities. CASY is a food retail company within the consumer staples space, which typically isn’t exciting. Indeed, the S & P 500 Consumer Staples ETF is the WORST sector year-to-date, currently -1.4% vs +17% for the S & P 500. CASY is not a member of the S & P 500 consumer staples sector, but if it was, it certainly would help: It is up roughly 44% year to date and just made a new all-time high this week. Making new highs is nothing new for this stock, which has been in a long-term uptrend for decades, as we’ll show in more detail below. Along the way, CASY has consistently demonstrated an ability to digest gains through multi-week consolidation phases. CASY now is attempting to leverage a very clear bullish formation on the daily chart — an inverse head & shoulders pattern. If the current consolidation resolves higher, the measured-move upside target would be all the way up near 647, which is meaningfully above current levels. This is not a short-term trade—the pattern could continue to play out into the first quarter. For this bullish setup to remain intact, CASY needs to eclipse and then hold above the 570-75 zone, which is currently being tested. From a trading perspective, a stop near 530 makes sense, as it aligns with the right shoulder of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Now let’s take a closer look at the weekly chart, shown here on a log scale. This is not the first time CASY has attempted to break out to new all-time highs. In fact, it has done so several times since early 2023, all while maintaining a well-defined long-term uptrend. Each prior breakout to new highs has been followed by clear upside follow-through, reinforcing the stock’s persistent bullish behavior. From this perspective, seeing the current breakout attempt resolve higher would not be a surprise. Instead, it would simply represent a continuation of the same price behavior we’ve observed over the last three years. Consumer staples is one of the smallest sectors in the S & P 500, currently representing about 4.7% of the index. As a result, many investors understandably maintain limited exposure to the group. However, looking ahead to 2026, if the recent rotation theme continues, allocating some capital to areas outside of traditional leadership — such as consumer staples — could prove logical. That said, the sector as a whole has a long history of underperformance, which is precisely what makes CASY stand out as a more attractive way to gain exposure. This has been evident since the stock first went public over two decades ago. CASY has consistently outperformed the consumer staples sector for more than 25 years, with that relative strength becoming even more pronounced since early 2022. In other words, we’re talking about a stock that is in a strong absolute uptrend and outperforming its broader sector. When a stock checks all of those boxes — bullish trends, relative strength, constructive consolidation patterns, and repeated new highs — it represents one of the best-case technical scenarios investors can ask for. For this theme to continue again now, the next step is straightforward: a decisive move through the 570-75 area. If that occurs, further upside — and eventually the measured-move target — would not be out of the question. — Frank Cappelleri Founder: https://cappthesis.com DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
